3DTVs are selling much faster than HiDef TVs in their comparable first year.
Market researcher Futuresource Consulting projects global sales of 3DTVs to reach 4 million this year, thanks in part to a nearly 40% decline in some 3DTV prices.
Across Western Europe alone, 1.2 million 3DTVs will be sold, rising to more than three million in 2011. In the US, more than five million 3DTVs will be sold next year.
Bill Foster, Senior Technology Consultant at Futuresource Consulting, says that manufacturers are now able to embed 3D chipsets at a relatively low cost for TVs using active shutter glasses, allowing them to increase their margins while still keeping 3D affordable. Passive glasses technology, as used in cinemas, is still more expensive to produce for the home and will remain costly for some time, as the TV requires a polarised screen. In addition, passive systems are unable to show 3D in full 1080p, as the picture on the screen is polarised, with half the image delivered to the left eye and half to the right.
Foster also said that as the television market continues to be commoditised, with traditional factors like screen size, display thickness and the quality of image reaching their peak, 3D capability will increasingly be bundled with other features like connectivity, web services and energy efficiency to add a new dimension beyond the battle for price point.
The analyst also took a shot at Toshiba, criticizing the company’s announcement about its autostereoscopic (glasses-free) 3DTVs, which may be discouraging some consumers from investing in the current generation of 3DTV. Futuresource research shows that autostereoscopic technologies are at least four years away from a large screen solution for the home, and it will likely be a few years beyond this before sets reach mass-market pricing, Foster said.
At a smaller screen size, auto-stereoscopic 3D devices are commercially viable as they are viewed close-up by a single person. The highest profile device to be announced so far is without doubt the Nintendo 3DS, due for launch in early 2011 and featuring a 3.53-inch display, but the developers of these small displays readily admit that scaling to larger sizes for a living room environment presents a significant technical challenge.